While Barack Obama makes a show of optimism and raised the American strategy for 2011 confirming the withdrawal and a mix of bombings aimed at keeping pressure on Al Qaeda in Kabul wears an unprecedented institutional crisis. Abdullah Abdullah, the ultimate opponent of President Hamid Karzai, has accused the Attorney General, who had contested the results of the elections in May, a silence that encourages the deadlock and prevent the new parliament to begin its work. Karzai said that the niche and malignant parliament the current president did not like and that, despite the fraud, does not guarantee that the majority wanted. He returned the formalization of the new elected and would be using the conflict between the prosecution and the electoral commission to buy time.
The crisis in Kabul is a reflection not only of the difficulties of Karzai, but also those of Obama, who has confirmed the start of the withdrawal in July 2011 and highlights significant progress against al-Qaeda and the Taliban, while the ' Afghan army would grow at rates higher than provided for NATO itself. But the analysis of Obama does not correspond to those far more pitiless observers: Kate Clark of Afghanistan Analyst Network, the scenario di Obama è “luccicante quanto irreale” e non si vede come potrà “portare pace e stabilità”. L'Afghanistan continua ad essere insomma in ebollizione e il pantano della guerra sembra senza soluzione anche se i leader (occidentali) delle forze in campo hanno sempre cercato di aggiustare le cose nei Palazzi.
Un nuovo spunto lo fornisce Wikileaks coi cablogrammi che da Bruxelles andavano a Washington. Quello che riguarda una riunione del dicembre scorso, in cui figura anche l'ex ambasciatore italiano Ettore Serqui (all'epoca inviato speciale Ue a Kabul), raccontano proprio i particolari pre elettorali. Alla riunione partecipava Richard Holbrooke, il negoziatore americano died a few days ago, the Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt (Sweden was the presidency of the EU), both showing a healthy realism, they repeated what I said a year ago during the presidential elections that were postponed at least that of few months to ensure transparency and proper electoral process. Sequi was also agreed that the present so they accepted his advice was to make sure that in case of referral, Karzai would not lose face in front of the international community. That did not in fact a scapegoat. But then, probably under pressure from other members of the U.S. (Ambassador to Kabul for example Eikenberry, who was on a collision course with the Europeans), won the argument and all costs of elections immediately. 
The story reveals many things: how much was actually isolated Holbrooke that his administration had chosen him as special envoy. How Europeans were potentially the most reasonable Americans and the role of Turkey, while playing to team up with Europe, was very close to the positions of Karzai, including another well enough to even Sequi. But it also explains the hatred of Eikenberry Bildt with the Europeans because they opposed his desire to play an important role in the NATO headquarters in Kabul that the EU wanted less American. There's also Catherine Ashton, the current chief diplomat European Union. Bildt was caustic: excellent for bureaucratic battles ... but with no knowledge of foreign policy. 
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